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Kraken Decries ‘Expansive New Theory’ Behind SEC Lawsuit, Calls for Dismissal - Decrypt
3 days ago
Crypto七安
Crypto七安
followers

#热门话题 Is there any "312" this year? And will there be an eternal bull market after the spot ETF is passed? First, let’s review why “312” will appear in 2020? That is, on March 12, the price fell back from 8000u to about 4400u, and pin 3782u was inserted on the 13th. In two days alone, more than 630,000#btc#binance btc/usdt participated in the transaction. Frankly speaking, even if half of this amount is obtained based on the current market conditions, the market will not be able to sustain it. So what exactly triggered the violent panic and crashed the market? Some friends said that because of the epidemic, global assets have plummeted, including gold as a store of value. Not to mention US stocks, our big A. Is that the only one? At that time, there was no#btcETF at all. Let’s not talk about A shares. Everyone understands. Another big correlation is the U.S. stock market. In terms of timing, it happens that interest rates were cut since July 2019. By the beginning of 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States had increased significantly, and the U.S. economy was entering a recession. The recession coincided with the outbreak of the global epidemic, especially in China and the United States. Prior to this, the suspension of interest rate hikes began in early 2019, and both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 experienced sharp gains. However, the interest rate cuts began. As interest rates lowered, Bitcoin fell from a high of 13970, and the S&P 500 also fluctuated downwards. Only gold After fluctuating upwards until 312, BTC and S&P 500 both plummeted, and gold also fell (later the Federal Reserve released a big wave of water, and interest rates were adjusted to 0, as everyone knows). These two things happened at the same time, causing severe panic and creating 312. What a coincidence.

3 days ago
Cryptopolitan
Cryptopolitan
followers

Alarm bells are ringing louder each day about the U.S.’s fiscal health, with Olivier Blanchard, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), raising the red flag over the nation’s climbing debt deficit. The U.S. is in a bind, borrowing trillions and wrestling with a $34 trillion debt beast that shows no signs of taming. These countries are staring down the barrel of a gun, as the U.S. debt crisis threatens to unleash a tidal wave that could wash away the economic stability of developing nations around the globe. The fear is a clear and present danger to global economic stability, making the U.S. dollar a hot potato that many are reconsidering holding. The Global Domino Effect Blanchard, who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, didn’t hold back when he talked about how bad things were getting for the U.S. economy. He boldly claims that his critique comes not from a place of speculation but from years of observation and analysis, highlighting that the U.S.’s financial woes are a harbinger of potential turmoil for the global economy. The U.S.’s fiscal irresponsibility, marked by sky-high deficits and a laissez-faire attitude towards reigning in spending, has caught the eye of economic experts and international observers alike. With the government’s debt reaching alarming levels—$26 trillion held by the public and more than 120% of GDP in total debt—the U.S. is skating on thin fiscal ice. Blanchard’s warnings are backed by cold, hard facts. The Congressional Budget Office’s projections show a grim picture, with interest costs expected to balloon, overtaking defense spending and trailing only behind Social Security and Medicare as the biggest budget burdens. This spike in interest payments, to the tune of $1.1 trillion over the next decade, revives old fears about the sustainability of the U.S.’s fiscal path and its implications on economic growth and asset prices. A Ticking Time Bomb The scenario is far from rosy. The U.S.’s growing debt is clearly a ticking time bomb with real-world consequences. Higher treasury yields, driven by investors demanding more to hold onto U.S. debt, are a symptom of deeper issues, including the potential for slowed economic growth and increased pressure on consumer and corporate borrowing costs. While the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with a robust stock market and low signs of stress in financial markets, the underlying issues of a ballooning deficit and escalating interest payments cannot be ignored. The debate rages on among analysts and economists about when, not if, the U.S.’s debt load will start dragging down the economy, potentially hampering the country’s ability to respond to future crises or recessions. Meanwhile, voices from the financial industry acknowledge the longstanding concerns over the U.S.’s fiscal health but also highlight the complexity of addressing these issues. With no easy fixes in sight and political hurdles standing in the way of significant policy shifts, the U.S. finds itself at a crossroads. The choice between austerity measures, tax increases, or continued deficit spending carries its own set of risks and potential for economic upheaval.

4 days ago
Cryptopolitan
Cryptopolitan
followers

Right now, the largest U.S. banks are trying to make sense of the commercial real estate debt that has got them in a bit of a bind. Thanks to a recent surge in late payments tied to everything from office spaces to shopping malls, financial institutions JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, are seeing their safety nets shrink faster than ice in a Mojito on a hot day. Clearly, gone are the days of lounging comfortably on reserves that looked more than adequate. The Creeping Concern of Commercial Debt Over the last year, it’s become apparent that these banks underestimated the appetite of commercial property debt for their loss reserves. Data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) paints a rather stark picture: average reserves plummeted from $1.60 to 90 cents for every dollar of commercial real estate debt that’s been collecting dust for at least 30 days. The total tab for delinquent commercial property debt across these six banking giants nearly tripled, soaring to a staggering $9.3 billion. The U.S. Federal Reserve, with Michael Barr’s supervision, has been peering over the shoulders of these banks, scrutinizing their commercial real estate (CRE) lending practices with the kind of intensity usually reserved for a final exam proctor. The focus is razor-sharp on how the institutions report their risk, provision for potential future losses, and whether they’re stockpiling enough capital to weather the storm. Effects on U.S. Banking Sector However, this problem isn’t confined to just the big players. The entire U.S. banking sector is feeling the heat, with the value of delinquent loans tied to commercial properties more than doubling last year to a jaw-dropping $24.3 billion. The cushion to absorb these potential losses? Thinner than ever, with banks holding a mere $1.40 in reserves for every dollar of delinquent loans, marking the lowest cover in over seven years. Industry experts, like Bill Moreland from BankRegData, are ringing alarm bells, warning that the banking sector may need to significantly beef up its allowances for loan losses. The situation has grown so dire that New York Community Bank saw its market value halved after unveiling hundreds of millions in previously swept-under-the-rug potential losses in its commercial property loan portfolio. At the center of this are loan allowances, essentially the rainy day funds banks set aside to cover future losses. Banks have traditionally played a balancing act, juggling the need to provision for losses without taking a sledgehammer to their earnings. However, with the ghost of COVID-19 still haunting commercial properties, especially office spaces, some argue that relying on historical loss rates is like driving with the rearview mirror. Take it from João Granja, an accounting professor with a front-row seat to the drama at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He points out the elephant in the room: if commercial properties can’t drum up enough business to pay their debts, banks will have no choice but to foreclose. It’s a scenario that spells trouble, suggesting that banks need to stop living in the past and start preparing for a potentially rocky future. Bank executives, meanwhile, are putting on a brave face. They claim their reserves were pumped up more than necessary and are now being gradually deflated as delinquencies rise. But as delinquencies on loans tied to office and apartment buildings jump, and banks slash their loss reserves, it’s clear there’s a disconnect somewhere. With banks potentially staring down the barrel of up to $60 billion in losses from soured commercial real estate loans over the next five years, the current $31 billion in reserved losses seems like a drop in the ocean. Yet, in a hilarious plot twist, the U.S. economy appears to be sidestepping the recession everyone was bracing for in 2024. The Conference Board’s leading economic index suggests a slowdown but not a full stop. Despite a dip in January, the index’s mixed signals hint at an economy that’s stubbornly outperforming gloomier forecasts.

4 days ago
Cryptopolitan
Cryptopolitan
followers

Renowned author Robert Kiyosaki, known for his bestselling book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has once again made bullish predictions regarding the price of Bitcoin. In a recent social media post, Kiyosaki forecasted that Bitcoin’s price would surge to $100,000 by June 2024. This projection aligns with his previous optimistic outlook on BTC’s trajectory, as well as his belief in the decline of gold. Robert Kiyosaki tips Bitcoin to hit $100,000 by June Robert Kiyosaki’s confidence in Bitcoin’s future has led him to increase his holdings of the cryptocurrency, particularly in anticipation of a significant price surge. He attributes this potential surge to the recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. In addition to his predictions about Bitcoin’s price, Robert Kiyosaki has been vocal about his concerns regarding the U.S. economy. He has warned of a potential collapse similar to that of the Roman Empire, without the likelihood of a soft landing. Kiyosaki has also expressed apprehensions about imminent crashes in both the stock and bond markets, fearing that such events could spiral into a depression. One of Kiyosaki’s main arguments for investing in Bitcoin revolves around his belief that it offers protection against the devaluation of traditional currencies, particularly amidst growing government debt. He views Bitcoin as a safeguard against the erosion of wealth caused by inflationary monetary policies. Industry experts weigh in on the prediction Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin is shared by other prominent figures in the financial world. David Stryzewski, CEO of Sound Planning Group, has suggested that Bitcoin is primed for a significant rally. Additionally, a panel of experts at Finder has predicted that Bitcoin’s price could exceed $77,000 this year. Venture capitalist Tim Draper has maintained his prediction of a $250,000 Bitcoin price by the end of the year, while Fundstrat’s head of research has forecasted a potential price of $150,000, with the possibility of reaching $500,000 within five years. Even more optimistic projections come from Cathie Wood’s investment management firm, Ark Invest, which sees a higher probability of Bitcoin’s price soaring to $1.5 million per coin. Standard Chartered has suggested that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025, while Bitwise expects it to surpass $80,000 this year. Vaneck, another asset management firm, anticipates Bitcoin reaching an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024, potentially driven by political events and regulatory shifts following a U.S. presidential election. Overall, the bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s price reflects a growing confidence in its potential as a store of value and an alternative investment asset. While some may remain skeptical of such lofty predictions, the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors and the broader financial industry suggests that the cryptocurrency’s trajectory is worth monitoring closely in the coming months and years.

5 days ago
金十数据APP
金十数据APP
followers

After two reports that exceeded expectations were released, the market issued a "soul torture", that is, how will the Federal Reserve deal with a U.S. economy that will not land? Betting on rate cuts was so prevalent a few weeks ago that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell publicly warned that policymakers were unlikely to cut rates before March. Less than three weeks later, swaps showed that traders were not only ruling out a rate cut by the Fed in March, but were also betting that a rate cut at the central bank's May meeting was unlikely. Confidence in a rate cut in June was also waning. Shaking. There has been a lot of buzz in the market lately that maybe the Fed's next move won't be to cut interest rates at all. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers on Friday expressed what many market participants are already thinking, namely that the Fed's next step is "most likely" to raise interest rates. Even if another rate hike is unpalatable, some Fed watchers have floated the idea that a repeat of the late 1990s could occur, with brief rate cuts and preparations for subsequent hikes. Earl Davis, head of fixed income and money markets at BMO Global Asset Management, said: "There are a lot of possible, plausible outcomes. While I maintain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, it's hard for me to say that with any confidence." As for Fed policymakers, none have publicly signaled further interest rate hikes in recent weeks. Powell said on January 31, “We believe our policy rates are likely to be in the midst of this tightening cycle.

5 days ago
CoinDesk
CoinDesk
followers

Is crypto back? It seems that every other week there is a headline saying bitcoin {{BTC}} and ether {{ETH}} are trading hands at prices not seen since 2021, when the crypto market was in an upswing. It’s not obvious that the price appreciation is going to stop anytime soon; things feel different this time around. This is an excerpt from The Node newsletter, a daily roundup of the most pivotal crypto news on CoinDesk and beyond. You can subscribe to get the full newsletter here. The pandemic-era bull market was a period of mass exuberance, hysteria and fun. Everyone from Elon Musk to my mom seemed to be talking about crypto. Celebrities were endorsing meme coins and buying NFTs. Crypto became a cultural touchstone: perhaps the best signifier of an economy going through wild gyrations as the post-pandemic world began to reopen, a weird time dominated by “vibes.” In comparison, the latest market upswing has been quiet. Sure, a few friends have reached out to see if they should buy bitcoin — an anecdotal indicator suggesting increased retail interest. But, by and large, it seems very people have taken notice as crypto prices have ticked up. See also: Bad Vibes from the Word 'Crypto' Have Some Calling for a Rebrand Of course, following the wave of protocol failures and corporate bankruptcies in 2022, starting with the high profile implosion of Terra and culminating in the collapse of FTX, crypto has become toxic to talk about. The same level of enthusiasm and lightheartedness is hard to regain while still living through the hangover. There are a number of indicators besides price action that suggest the crypto market rebound has begun in full force. MetaMask, the primary means of accessing the Ethereum network, is nearing an all-time high of monthly active users (30 million); Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, posted its first profitable quarter in two years as trading volumes bounce back; and bitcoin search interest is bouncing back (a little), according to Google Trends. A number of factors could be contributing to rising interest. The bitcoin halving, an event that occurs roughly every four years, is always a popular media topic. Meme coins and token airdrops feed the idea that the crypto industry prints people free money. Endorsements from figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and even government bodies, in places like Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates, foster a sense that crypto is technologically significant. Most notably, the launch of nearly a dozen spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has gone better than expected, with BlackRock’s ETF already posting the fifth-largest inflows this year and billions of capital flowing into the crypto funds. Moreover, there is a growing sense that the worst may be over for crypto, legally-speaking. Large overhanging concerns have more or less wrapped up, often in crypto’s favor. The Department of Justice settled with Binance, imposing a strict financial penalty, but one the world’s largest exchange appears able to carry. The U.S. Securities Exchange Commission’s hostile attempt to “regulate through enforcement” was dinged after Ripple won a significant legal battle in court, and as the agency faces other uphill battles in court. And the FTX bankruptcy process is winding down, with full restitution expected for all former users. See also: Momentum Building: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth Increasingly governments, including in the U.S., appear to want to work with the industry to develop policies that protect consumers without hampering the development of crypto. The European Union passed the significant MiCA ruleset while the U.K., Hong Kong, Nigeria, and others are all vying to become crypto “hubs.” It’s as dangerous as it is stupid for journalists to try to predict the future, especially in an industry as volatile and quickly changing as crypto. There’s no guarantee the bitcoin rally will continue, and there’s always the chance for fortunes to reverse. But there certainly is a growing sense that crypto is on the cusp. A lot of things have changed since 2021, many for the better. If the buzz grows, crypto has the opportunity to do it better this time, leaving behind the shameless celebrity endorsements, wanton financial speculation, pure fraud and waves of rehypothecation and backroom deals that defined crypto’s bad vibes last time to focus on building something more substantial and long-lasting.

5 days ago
Cryptopolitan
Cryptopolitan
followers

Turbulence is brewing on the financial horizon, and if you’re not yet in the loop, it’s high time you catch up. The recent bombshell dropped by none other than ex-U.S. Military General Mike Flynn has sent ripples through the calm waters of American economic discourse. With a tone that’s less forewarning and more fire alarm, Flynn has vehemently spotlighted the impending financial shift that could see the U.S. dollar’s dominance on the global stage not just challenged but potentially dethroned. This is a calculated prediction backed by observable shifts in international monetary dynamics, particularly in light of BRICS’ plot against the greenback’s hegemony. The De-Dollarization Dilemma Flynn’s alarm bells didn’t ring without reason. The crux of his concern hinges on the concerted efforts by the BRICS nations to untangle themselves from the dollar’s grasp. This is a well-orchestrated plan set against the backdrop of escalating Western sanctions, especially against Russia, and the palpable fear of similar fates befalling its allies. The federation of these nations is becoming a formidable economic force intent on reshaping the international monetary order. The narrative, as Flynn puts it, hints at a shift so significant that the U.S. government’s mishandling could turn an already challenging transition into a quagmire of economic uncertainties. With every mention of the U.S. dollar’s potential decline, the discussion often pivots to America’s ballooning debt, now breaching the $34 trillion mark. The specter of an economy unable to peddle its bonds in a world that’s slowly turning its back on its currency spells a disaster of epic proportions. The U.S. finds itself at a crossroads, with the future of its financial supremacy hanging by a thread as the BRICS nations chip away at the dollar’s bedrock, a scenario Flynn describes as “death by 1,000 cuts.” On Thin Ice: The U.S.’s Economic Facade Venture beyond international finance, and you’ll find the domestic front is no bed of roses either. Despite what the S&P 500’s record highs might suggest, the undercurrents of the U.S. economy paint a far grimmer picture. The labor market, once the bulwark of economic strength, reveals cracks upon closer inspection. The glorified job numbers mask a troubling shift towards part-time employment and the rise of multiple jobholders, a makeshift dam against the tide of economic pressures. On paper, this looks like a thriving economy but a sign of underlying distress, where households juggle jobs not for surplus but for survival. Consumer confidence, a once stalwart indicator of economic health, is wavering. The drawdown of pandemic-era savings coupled with creeping delinquency rates in credit card and auto loan payments signals a consumer base bracing for impact. The housing market, with mortgage rates hovering near two-decade highs, further complicates the narrative of a resilient American consumer. This confluence of economic indicators, far from painting a rosy picture, suggests a looming recalibration of the U.S. economy’s fundamentals. The juxtaposition of a weakening dollar amidst a fragile domestic economy and the strategic defiance by the BRICS nations encapsulates a multifaceted challenge to the U.S.’s economic stability. Flynn’s forewarning, laced with the certainty of a seasoned strategist, is a clarion call to acknowledge and address the tectonic shifts underway.

6 days ago
财富智慧家
财富智慧家
followers

When the U.S. delegation visited China, they expressed concerns to China about its advanced manufacturing industry, especially in the clean energy field. The United States has warned that if China attempts to alleviate overcapacity problems by dumping goods into the international market, the United States and its allies will take action. Washington is paying attention to this, and the global economy, stock markets, investment and financial markets will also be affected. It is hoped that both parties can actively communicate and jointly cope with challenges.

6 days ago
财经小飞侠
财经小飞侠
followers

The total U.S. national debt has reached $34.2 trillion, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also warned that the U.S. fiscal system is unsustainable! 😱 Powell said it is time for elected government officials to engage in mature and rational conversations to put the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path. 🗣️ While the U.S. avoided a widely forecast recession in 2023, record government spending and reduced tax revenues have led to a record high national debt. 📈 This trend continues this year. The U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of total public debt relative to economic growth, increased to more than 120% from just over 100% in 2019. Although this is down from the peak of 133% during the epidemic, as Powell said, U.S. government debt "is still growing faster than the economy." Are everyone’s concerns about U.S. finances justified? Or do you think the U.S. economy has enough vitality and innovation to deal with this problem? Feel free to speak freely in the comment area! 💬

7 days ago
深潮 TechFlow
深潮 TechFlow
followers

Deep Tide TechFlow news, according to Bitcoincom, Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", predicted that the prices of Bitcoin and silver will "take off", while gold will fall below $1,200. He urged investors to prepare for the "biggest crash in history" he predicted in his book years ago. Kiyosaki also emphasized that the Federal Reserve is “destroying” the U.S. economy, suggesting: “Instead of trusting the Fed, I would rather trust gold, silver, and Bitcoin.”

8 days ago
Coinpedia
Coinpedia
followers

The post Author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” Robert Kiyosaki, Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $100K by June 2024 appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Renowned author Robert Kiyosaki, widely known for his bestselling book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” has set the cryptocurrency community abuzz by forecasting Bitcoin’s value to surge to $100,000 by June 2024. BTC to $100k by June 2024. In a recent tweet post, Kiyosaki shares his bullish prediction on Bitcoin’s price, stating that Bitcoin will reach $100k by June 2024. Meanwhile, this optimistic outlook further solidifies Kiyosaki’s consistent support for assets like gold, silver, & Bitcoin. BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024. — Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) February 18, 2024 This isn’t the first time Kiyosaki has been bullish about Bitcoin, earlier on February 15, he expressed concern about the Federal Reserve’s impact on the U.S. economy. He criticized the Fed for allegedly harming the financial well-being of the poor and middle class while benefiting wealthy banking institutions.  In a straightforward tweet, he stated, “Don’t Fight the Fed? I say ‘F the Fed.’ Buy gold, silver, Bitcoin.” Perhaps these comments come at a time when Bitcoin is experiencing notable growth, with a remarkable 10% increase over the past week, reaching the $52,302 mark. Why It Matters Further highlighting the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024, Kiyosaki encourages his followers to closely monitor this significant occurrence, which reduces the rate of new Bitcoin creation approximately every four years.  His support of Bitcoin investment aligns with his acknowledgment of financial planners shifting their approach, moving clients towards Bitcoin rather than steering away for commission-based gains. Bitcoin’s Price Analysis  Kiyosaki’s bold predictions come amid an impressive surge in Bitcoin’s value, recently reaching a 26-month high of $52,000. Notably, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable 23% gain since the beginning of the year.  However, for Kiyosaki’s $100,000 target to materialize, Bitcoin faces the substantial challenge of a 92.17% surge within the next three months and 14 days. As of now, Bitcoin is trading 0.9% higher at $52,337.55.

7 days ago
Traderpro
Traderpro
followers

Analysis of Bitcoin market trends after the Spring Festival Looking back at the market situation before the Spring Festival: Before the Spring Festival in 2024, the price of Bitcoin experienced a strong rise, rising from US$38,545 to US$52,859, an increase of more than 37%. This rise is mainly due to the following reasons: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have slowed, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and risk assets have generally recovered. Macroeconomic data shows that the risk of recession in the United States has declined, and investors are more optimistic about the economic outlook. Cryptocurrency market sentiment is picking up, with more institutional investors entering the market. Market forecast after the Spring Festival: After the Spring Festival, the Bitcoin market may have the following trends: 1. Continue to rise: If the Fed slows down its rate hikes and the macro economy remains stable, Bitcoin prices may continue their upward trend. The target could be above $55,000 and even challenge $60,000. 2. Shock finishing: If market sentiment diverges, Bitcoin prices may fluctuate within the current range. The range is likely to be between $48,000 and $55,000. 3. Retracement decline: If expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates increase and risk assets generally fall back, Bitcoin prices may fall during a correction. The magnitude of the correction could be between 10% and 20%. Influencing factors: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy macroeconomic data Cryptocurrency market sentiment Institutional investor trends Investment Advice: After the Spring Festival, investors can pay attention to the following aspects: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Cryptocurrency market trading volume Institutional investor position report Investors are advised to control risks and not blindly chase the rise or fall. Please note that the above are only personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their own circumstances. #BTC $BTC

7 days ago
Crypto白丁
Crypto白丁
followers

Interest rate cuts are postponed, and rumors of interest rate hikes are overwhelming! The unexpectedly strong January CPI and PPI data in the United States caused the market to postpone expectations for a rate cut in May to June, and then from June to July. But the market seems to be more extreme, and many big players have even shouted slogans to continue raising interest rates. The loudest call for an interest rate hike comes from former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers. Summers said that the continued inflationary pressure shown in the latest data indicates that the Fed's next policy action may be to raise interest rates rather than cut them. In addition, strategists at Societe Generale and Citigroup both said there may be risks of interest rate hikes. In fact, this is actually good for the risk market! Historically, risk markets will fall after interest rate cuts, because interest rate cuts mean that the U.S. economy has weakened. Now that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been postponed, the market's expectations of interest rate cuts have always existed, which has promoted the rise in risk market prices. Judging from the current situation, I temporarily believe that the currency circle will collectively rise in the second half of this year. At that time, I will gradually stop taking profits and leave the market. #BTC

8 days ago
CoinDesk
CoinDesk
followers

Bitcoin’s latest move above $50,000 contradicts its record of posting sharp gains, mostly during bouts of weakness in the dollar index and Treasury yields. We could be seeing safe-haven demand for bitcoin from regions like China and Nigeria, one observer said. Bitcoin {{BTC}} has jumped over 35% to over $52,000 since Jan. 23, consistent with its reputation of chalking double-digit gains in a matter of weeks. The latest move, however, stands out because it has materialized alongside a resurgent U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. The DXY, which gauges the greenback’s exchange rate against major fiat currencies, has gained 3% this year, with the index gaining around 1% since Jan. 23. Historically, bitcoin has been negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar, posting sharp rallies only during bouts of dollar weakness. For instance, the DXY fell 2% to under 90 in February 2021 when bitcoin first rose above $50,000. As a global reserve, the U.S. dollar is outsized in international finance and non-bank borrowings. Thus, a strengthening dollar leads to financial tightening worldwide, disincentivizing investment in risky assets like technology stocks, cryptocurrencies and commodities like gold. Similarly, an uptick in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, or the so-called risk-free rate, usually spurs outflows from other assets. The yield has risen from 4.10% to 4.26% in three weeks, with hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation figure denting the probability of an early Fed rate cut. Bitcoin’s resilience likely stems from strong inflows into the U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds in the U.S. Nearly a dozen ETFs began trading in the U.S. on Jan. 11 and have since amassed roughly $5 billion in net inflows. “What we started seeing when BTC didn’t drop along with the jump in DXY and U.S. yields was the beginning of strong inflows – there was buying pressure offsetting the usual sell pressure, and that seems to be picking up,” Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk. “We could be seeing more ‘safe-haven’ buying from regions such as China, Nigeria and others - we’re probably also seeing some speculative inflows front-running the growth of the investor base and the halving,” Acheson added. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been facing deflationary pressures, a property market crisis, and a stock market meltdown. Per Reuters, Chinese citizens have turned to bitcoin amid economic malaise. Similarly, Nigeria’s ongoing currency crisis and rampant inflation may have spurred cryptocurrency demand. Acheson said that bitcoin has always been a safe haven for some and an emerging technology play (or risk asset) for others, explaining the hedging demand for the cryptocurrency. “The ETFs don’t change that, they just act as a channel,” he added. Meanwhile, according to QCP Capital, the CME’s decision to increase the required margin for trading its bitcoin futures may have contributed to the bitcoin rally. “This has recently become an important trigger for volatility. In this case, leveraged players were positioned short, and the new requirement resulted in widespread short covering over a relatively illiquid Lunar New Year weekend. This drove both spot prices and forwards higher. The forward spread trade in BTC is now back to around 11-12% annually,” QCP said on X.

9 days ago

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