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SignalPlus華語
SignalPlus華語
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As part of its gradual economic stimulus plan, China lowered its mortgage interest rates yesterday, with the 5-year loan market quotation rate reduced by 25 basis points to 3.95%. This is the first reduction since June last year and the largest decrease since 2019. However, , this move failed to boost investor sentiment, with the CSI 300 Index closing only up 0.2%, and bond yields failing to drop. The market still sees these measures as just a small step in solving a larger structural problem, with sluggish housing demand less a question of loan costs than a supply-demand imbalance and a bleak economic outlook. Despite lower-than-expected CPI in Japan and Canada and a dovish stance from the Bank of England Bailey (which does not require inflation to return to target before cutting interest rates), the supply of investment-grade corporate bonds of $50 billion is still leading to the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Go steeply. Meanwhile, Walmart reported that average consumer spending fell 0.3% even as transaction volume rose 4.3%, suggesting purchase amounts are falling and lending hope to the narrative of slowing inflation. On the equity market, the rolling correlation between bonds and stocks continued to weaken in February, with stock prices remaining near all-time highs and bonds taking a hit from the adjustment in rate cut expectations over the past six weeks (with rates higher for longer) . Interestingly, investors continue to pile heavily into money market funds, with U.S. money market funds recording another $128 billion in inflows since the start of the year

about 16 hours ago
CoinDesk
CoinDesk
Bitcoin's Latest Rally is Different as BTC Rises Alongside U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields
6 days ago
CoinDesk
CoinDesk
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Bitcoin’s latest move above $50,000 contradicts its record of posting sharp gains, mostly during bouts of weakness in the dollar index and Treasury yields. We could be seeing safe-haven demand for bitcoin from regions like China and Nigeria, one observer said. Bitcoin {{BTC}} has jumped over 35% to over $52,000 since Jan. 23, consistent with its reputation of chalking double-digit gains in a matter of weeks. The latest move, however, stands out because it has materialized alongside a resurgent U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields. The DXY, which gauges the greenback’s exchange rate against major fiat currencies, has gained 3% this year, with the index gaining around 1% since Jan. 23. Historically, bitcoin has been negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar, posting sharp rallies only during bouts of dollar weakness. For instance, the DXY fell 2% to under 90 in February 2021 when bitcoin first rose above $50,000. As a global reserve, the U.S. dollar is outsized in international finance and non-bank borrowings. Thus, a strengthening dollar leads to financial tightening worldwide, disincentivizing investment in risky assets like technology stocks, cryptocurrencies and commodities like gold. Similarly, an uptick in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, or the so-called risk-free rate, usually spurs outflows from other assets. The yield has risen from 4.10% to 4.26% in three weeks, with hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation figure denting the probability of an early Fed rate cut. Bitcoin’s resilience likely stems from strong inflows into the U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds in the U.S. Nearly a dozen ETFs began trading in the U.S. on Jan. 11 and have since amassed roughly $5 billion in net inflows. “What we started seeing when BTC didn’t drop along with the jump in DXY and U.S. yields was the beginning of strong inflows – there was buying pressure offsetting the usual sell pressure, and that seems to be picking up,” Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, told CoinDesk. “We could be seeing more ‘safe-haven’ buying from regions such as China, Nigeria and others - we’re probably also seeing some speculative inflows front-running the growth of the investor base and the halving,” Acheson added. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been facing deflationary pressures, a property market crisis, and a stock market meltdown. Per Reuters, Chinese citizens have turned to bitcoin amid economic malaise. Similarly, Nigeria’s ongoing currency crisis and rampant inflation may have spurred cryptocurrency demand. Acheson said that bitcoin has always been a safe haven for some and an emerging technology play (or risk asset) for others, explaining the hedging demand for the cryptocurrency. “The ETFs don’t change that, they just act as a channel,” he added. Meanwhile, according to QCP Capital, the CME’s decision to increase the required margin for trading its bitcoin futures may have contributed to the bitcoin rally. “This has recently become an important trigger for volatility. In this case, leveraged players were positioned short, and the new requirement resulted in widespread short covering over a relatively illiquid Lunar New Year weekend. This drove both spot prices and forwards higher. The forward spread trade in BTC is now back to around 11-12% annually,” QCP said on X.

6 days ago
ju哥
ju哥
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Last night, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was released. The unexpected rise exceeded expectations, causing U.S. Treasury yields to surge again. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, and market sentiment turned from high to partial panic. From my personal point of view, the recent announcements of US January data are not ideal and may bring a washout to the market. First of all, U.S. Treasury bonds and cryptocurrencies are essentially competitors on the safe-haven asset track. The renewed surge in U.S. Treasury yields indicates that hot money has returned to U.S. bonds. In the same way, hot money in cryptocurrencies is flowing out. Secondly, after the CPI data in January exceeded expectations, U.S. stocks plummeted collectively, and market sentiment began to cool down. However, unexpectedly, the U.S. stock market subsequently rose in a retaliatory manner, and the cryptocurrency took advantage of this retaliatory rise to break through the 52,000 mark. Finally, Bitcoin has been trading sideways at 52,000 for a long time, and its rise has been blocked several times. This position is destined to be the high point of this cycle. To sum up, there is a high probability that the cryptocurrency will go through a downward correction in the future. We will look at 50,000 and 48,000 in the short term, and 46,000 in the long term. Once 46,000 falls, this bull market will be over. There is a high probability that altcoins will undergo a wave of bloody liquidations. If there is a weathervane for the direction of the cryptocurrency market, it must be altcoins. In the early stage of the rising cycle, altcoins tend to be the first to see the water coming and go up collectively. In the middle of the cycle, altcoins rose in a step-by-step manner. At the end of the cycle, altcoins began to decline, and then plummeted, completing the closed loop of the cycle. Regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish, altcoins

4 days ago
CryptoPotato
CryptoPotato
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Multinational financial services giant Citibank announced on Wednesday that it is experimenting with tokenized securities on the blockchain to bolster the adoption of distributed ledger technology on Wall Street. Based on the results of the “simulation,” the bank will determine whether it plans to offer related blockchain-based services in the coming weeks. Citibank Onboards The Blockchain The bank collaborated with Wellington Management and WisdomTree – a crypto-supportive ETF sponsor – to initiate its “proof of concept” for the program. The latest test, as reported by Bloomberg, tokenized a hypothetical Wellington-issued private equity fund on Avalanche – a smart contract platform whose native coin, AVAX, is the 10th largest crypto by market cap. Avalanche has been the blockchain of choice for many firms breaking into tokenized securities, including Republic’s profit-sharing digital asset, Republic Note. According to Citi, fund distribution rules have been baked into the underlying smart contract of Wellington’s fund, determining how tokens are split among WisdomTree clients. It also tested how a private fund token could be used as loan collateral in an automated lending contract with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation’s crypto unit, according to Puneet Singhvi, Citi’s institutional head of digital assets. The simulation proves that its possible to issue and custody tokenized assets on behalf of clients in a controlled environment while remaining compatible with legacy banking systems. It also provides a clear roadmap for how institutions can onboard blockchain in a regulatory-compliant manner, Singhvi said. Building Blockchain-Based Securities Last month, a group of former executives from Citigroup announced plans to issue Bitcoin Depository Receipts (BTC DRs) to global institutional investors. These would offer Bitcoin exposure to clients without need for registration under the Securities Act of 1933. In September, the bank made history as the first digital custodian of the BondbloX Bond Exchange, which leverages blockchain to democratize access to bonds. Data from Dune Analytics shows that tokenized securities now boast a $489 million market cap following a drastic rise in December. Their dashboard indicates that the most popular tokenized securities today include the yield-bearing stablecoin protocol Mountain, alongside various tokens offering exposure to treasury bond yields. In 2022, Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson described use cases for blockchain, including tokenized securities as a “sport changer” for the financial industry, while calling Bitcoin a “distraction” by comparison. Her views have since grown more optimistic on Bitcoin itself, however. The post Citibank Is Now Experimenting With Issuing Stocks On The Blockchain appeared first on CryptoPotato.

7 days ago
Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor
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Bitcoin, Inflation, and the FED’s Rate Cut Dance In the ever-turbulent world of finance, Bitcoin, inflation, and Federal Reserve (FED) policies are once again at the forefront of investors’ minds. Recent developments have seen a dramatic interplay between these elements, influencing market dynamics and investor sentiment. Let’s dive into how these factors are shaping the current economic landscape. Bitcoin Takes a Hit Amid Inflation Concerns Bitcoin’s price trajectory has been anything but stable, with recent data showing a significant drop. The cryptocurrency saw a sharp decline, shedding $1.6K in value as hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures emerged. This drop underscores the sensitivity of Bitcoin to inflationary pressures and the broader economic environment. Despite the dip, the allure of Bitcoin remains, with ETF inflows and trading volumes indicating sustained interest among investors. Inflation Surprises on the Upside January’s CPI data threw a curveball, coming in higher than anticipated. With a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year figure of 3.1%, inflation’s persistence is evident. Shelter and food prices were significant contributors to this rise, reflecting the ongoing challenges facing consumers. This uptick in inflation has implications for monetary policy and the broader economic outlook, signaling that the battle against rising prices is far from over. FED’s Rate Cut Expectations Adjusted The FED’s potential response to these inflationary pressures is a hot topic. Initially, there was speculation about a rate cut as early as March. However, the latest inflation data has led to a recalibration of these expectations, with the market now anticipating any rate adjustments to occur later in the year. This shift highlights the delicate balance the FED must maintain between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation. Market Reactions and Future Outlook The reaction to the CPI data was swift, with stock markets sliding and Treasury yields spiking. This market volatility reflects the uncertainty surrounding the FED’s next moves and the broader economic trajectory. As investors and analysts digest these developments, the consensus is that the path forward will be marked by caution and close monitoring of inflation trends. The Interplay of Bitcoin, Inflation, and Monetary Policy The interconnection between Bitcoin, inflation, and FED policies is a testament to the complex nature of modern financial markets. Bitcoin’s volatility in response to economic indicators, the persistence of inflation, and the FED’s cautious stance on rate cuts are all pieces of a larger puzzle. As we move forward, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for navigating the uncertainties of the financial landscape. In conclusion, the dance between Bitcoin, inflation, and FED rate cuts continues, with each step influencing the next. As investors and policymakers grapple with these challenges, the coming months will be critical in shaping the economic outlook for 2024 and beyond.  

8 days ago
Coinpedia
Coinpedia
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The post US CPI Declines To 3.1%, Still Higher Than Expectations: Bitcoin Price Loses Momentum appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 3.1%; however, it has significantly surpassed economists’ expectations. This hotter-than-expected inflation rates signals a heated economy, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy stance in the coming months. Amidst this economic fervor, Bitcoin is losing its momentum after recently breaking the $50K milestone. US CPI Comes In Hotter Than Expected The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Tuesday that the annual inflation rate in the US, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December. This figure however exceeded market forecasts, which had anticipated a drop to 2.9%. Additionally, the Core CPI, which omits the fluctuating costs of food and energy, climbed by 3.9% over the same timeframe, equaling the increase seen in December and exceeding the 3.7% prediction by analysts. January saw a higher-than-anticipated rise in inflation, largely due to continuous high costs for shelter impacting consumers, according to a report from the Labor Department on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the consumer price index, which measures a wide range of prices for goods and services that consumers pay across the economy, rose by 0.3% during the month. When excluding the more fluctuating prices of food and energy, the core CPI saw a 0.4% rise in January, reaching a 3.9% increase from the previous year. This acceleration went beyond the anticipated rates of 0.3% for the month and 3.7% for the year. The announcement had an immediate and stark impact on the stock market, with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 250 points, and yields on Treasury securities sharply increasing. This data is released at a critical time for the Fed as it aims to find the right equilibrium for monetary policy in 2024. Despite financial markets pushing for significant cuts to interest rates, Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more cautious tone in their statements, suggesting the importance of being guided by actual economic data rather than preconceived expectations. Federal Reserve officials have been bullish that inflation will return to their 2% yearly goal, largely anticipating a slowdown in shelter costs over the year. However, the rise in January presents a challenge for the central bank, which is considering easing the most restrictive monetary policy stance it has taken in over two decades.   BTC Price Loses The $50K Grip Following this news, Bitcoin price lost its 2-year high of $50K as it dropped toward the low of $49,200. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool economic activity and reduce speculative investments, including those in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies are viewed as riskier assets, and in times of economic uncertainty or inflation concerns, investors might shift their portfolios towards safer assets, such as bonds or gold.

8 days ago
Cryptopolitan
Cryptopolitan
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Settle in, guys, because it looks like the US dollar is heading for a rough patch, and it’s not just small talk at the water cooler. The big guns at the Federal Reserve have basically come out and said, “We’ve got a problem.” And when the Fed speaks, you know it’s time to listen. They’re not known for beating around the bush or making a fuss over nothing. This time, they’re pointing fingers at their own aggressive moves to keep inflation in check, hinting that maybe, just maybe, they’ve been playing the game a bit too hard. With the BRICS nations making moves to permanently ditch the dollar in their trade and investments, it’s like watching a high school clique drama, but with billions of dollars at stake. They’re tired of the dollar calling the shots and are ready to see what life looks like without it hogging the spotlight. The Dollar’s Rollercoaster Ride Let’s get real—this isn’t about some temporary dip or a bad day on the stock market. This is about the US dollar facing a legit identity crisis. The Fed’s head honcho, Jerome Powell, pretty much laid it out on prime time, saying the dollar’s on a path to nowhere good. Picture this: the world’s go-to currency, the one that’s been leading the economic dance for decades, might just be about to lose its groove. The whole scenario’s got a vibe of an economic thriller. The BRICS bloc is on a mission to reduce the world’s dollar dependency, which is a fancy way of saying they’re setting up the chessboard for a world where the dollar isn’t the king. It’s a bold move, and it’s not just about diversifying their portfolios—it’s a strategic play to shake up the global economic hierarchy. Signs of the Times Now, onto the real talk. The Fed’s been cranking up interest rates, trying to keep inflation from turning the economy into a hot mess. But here’s the kicker: the higher rates are making the dollar too strong for its own good, especially against other major currencies. It’s like flexing so hard you start to cramp up. On the flip side, you’ve got the dollar showing off in the currency markets, hitting near three-month highs against the euro. But don’t let that swagger fool you. This strength is more about the Fed’s hawkish stance (yeah, they’re not backing down on those rate hikes) and less about the dollar being the belle of the ball. Even the analysts are chiming in, saying this isn’t just a momentary blip. The dollar’s strength is on shaky ground, with U.S. Treasury yields acting all moody, reflecting investors’ jitters about what’s next. And let’s not even get started on the technical factors and market recalibrations that are making traders’ heads spin. So, what’s the bottom line here? The US dollar, the world’s financial superhero, is facing its kryptonite. Between the Fed’s tough-love approach to inflation and the BRICS bloc’s not-so-subtle push for a de-dollarized world, it’s clear the greenback is entering uncharted waters. And as the saga unfolds, one thing’s for sure: the future of the US dollar is anything but certain.

14 days ago
CoinChapter
CoinChapter
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YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) – Economist and Gold bug Peter Schiff predicted a US dollar crash looming, as the Federal Reserve could fail to stick the soft landing it claims to have achieved. The US dollar is on the verge of a historic crash. This will be a game changer for the Fed and the economy, as it will send inflation, interest rates, and unemployment soaring. Forget about a soft landing. It’s crash & burn. tweeted Schiff Treasury Yields Dipped, But It’s Too Soon to Celebrate In detail, the US economy has been on the verge of recession since the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by more than 500 basis points over the past six quarters to tame inflation. Government bond yields, against which policymakers benchmark corporate debt rates, surged in line with the Fed’s hawkish policies.  However, the treasury yields dipped in the previous month, raising hopes for a soft landing after all, despite Schiff’s warnings. Reuters attributed this change to the latest economic growth reading, which did not significantly alter market expectations that a Federal Reserve rate cut could be on the horizon. As of Nov. 30, the benchmark 10-year notes were down 7.3 basis points at 4.26%, the 30-year bond yield was at 4.44%, and the 2-year note yield was at 4.63%. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. Source: TradingView.com Meanwhile, dropping yields does NOT mean a dollar crash, but there are other factors to consider. High Spending Boosted the GDP, Not Economic Growth At the same time, the US Treasury yield curve has been inverted since 2022, ringing recession bells. An inverted yield curve has successfully predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Bank of America experts predict that the curve comparing two- and ten-year Treasury yields will turn positive and end the year at +25 basis points. However, there are concerns about the supply-demand backdrop, particularly regarding long-dated securities as the Treasury is expected to increase debt issuance. ​ Schiff also noted the debt issuance. He asserted that the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3 is due to high spending rather than economic growth. The US economy is already in recession. Though Q3 GDP grew by 5.2%, government spending contributed 5.5%. So without that spending, GDP would’ve contracted by 0.3%. Government spending borrowed money doesn’t reflect real economic growth. It will only lead to higher inflation. said Schiff Gold Price Surges Past $2K In times of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often flock to safer assets like US Treasuries and gold. If Treasury yields are low, indicating a risk-off sentiment, gold may become more attractive as a safe-haven asset, and its price may rise. As of Nov. 30, the gold price reached over $2,040 an ounce, surging 6% in the previous three weeks. Gold price per ounce. Source: TradingView.com Unsurprisingly, Shiff also added that investors will eventually turn to gold to offset their dollar crash losses. The U.S. dollar is toast. As inflation heats up, to avoid getting burned the world will turn to gold as the most viable alternative. he added. Central Banks Raised Gold Price Central banks worldwide agreed, cranking their purchasing. The World Gold Council has reported that global central banks have been purchasing gold at a record pace in the first three quarters of 2023, reaching a total of 800 tons. China, Poland, and Singapore were among the primary buyers of gold during this period​​​​. Additionally, the Central Bank of Türkiye notably continued its gold buying spree in November, adding an additional 19 tons to its reserves. This brought its year-to-date net purchases of gold to 123 tons, the largest reported by any country, and increased its official gold reserves to 517 tons, which constitutes 27% of its total reserves​​. Is the dollar crash imminent? It is not clear if Schiff’s predictions have merit to that extent. However, several macroeconomic factors point out that it is too early to celebrate the growth in the US economy. The post Dollar Crash & Burn Coming, Says Schiff as Gold Soars and Treasury Yields Dip appeared first on CoinChapter.

3 months ago
AuthSANKchain
AuthSANKchain
followers

Why is the crypto market down today? The crypto market is experiencing a downturn today, with the total market capitalization dropping by 0.63% to $1.67 trillion as of Jan. 18. Bitcoin's market dominance has slightly increased to 48.85%, indicating a cooling off from the recent excitement surrounding spot ETFs. The U.S. Dollar Index has shown remarkable strength, climbing from 101 in early January to 103.50 by Jan. 18. This surge is supported by robust U.S. economic data, including higher-than-expected retail sales growth in December 2023 and rising U.S. Treasury yields.

about 1 month ago
Coinspeaker
Coinspeaker
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Coinspeaker 10-Year US Treasury Yields Surge Past 5% Again, Dow Futures Crash 200 Points Macro pressure continues to hover over Wall Street as the 10-year US Treasury yields surged higher even today on Monday, October 23. The treasury yields continue to hover at multi-year highs as investors prepare for higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Around 5:54 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, considered the benchmark, increased by 9 basis points to reach 5.014%. Similarly, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose by approximately 8 basis points to reach 5.173%. It’s essential to note that yields move inversely to bond prices. This marks the first time since July 2007 that the 10-year yield surpassed the 5% threshold. This surge followed the remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the central bank’s unwavering commitment to reducing inflation sustainably to 2%, even if it requires lower economic growth. Futures tied to the federal funds rate are currently indicating a 98% likelihood that the central bank will keep its main interest rate unchanged within the target range of 5.25% to 5.5% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Furthermore, there are scheduled auctions on Monday for $75 billion worth of three-month Treasury bills and $68 billion worth of six-month bills. Dow Futures Tank 200 Points On Monday, stock futures faced a decline as Treasury yields saw an increase, and traders geared up for the forthcoming corporate earnings reports from major tech industry players. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a drop of 227 points, equivalent to 0.7%. Similarly, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. Wall Street is coming off a challenging week, with the S&P 500 concluding the week 2.4% lower, marking its first weekly loss in three weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.6% decline, while the Nasdaq Composite registered its second consecutive weekly loss, falling by 3.2%. The upcoming week ushers in earnings season, with several major tech giants, including Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), set to disclose their financial results. These earnings reports are highly anticipated by investors as they are expected to provide significant insights into the stock market. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, however, showed some optimism. He said: “We’re hopefully going to see some continued positive strength there on the economy and what they see going forward. The headlines are scary, for sure. But the fundamentals to us are pretty strong. We’re still seeing earnings season that’s going to come in better than expected.” Higher Treasury Yield Can Impact Ethereum Elevated treasury yields usually impact risk ON assets like crypto. However, they seem to have impacted Ethereum much more than Bitcoin. Crypto investors have the opportunity to earn rewards by staking Ether tokens to support the operation of the Ethereum blockchain, which some consider a potential factor to bolster the coin’s value. However, the staking rewards on these pledged tokens have dwindled to an annualized rate of 3.5%, reaching levels near the lowest recorded in the past ten months and significantly below the recent peak of over 8%. This return also falls behind the 5% yields offered by US government bonds, which form the foundation of the traditional financial system. This disparity highlights how the allure of the occasionally volatile crypto market has diminished due to the departure from the ultra-low interest rates that were prevalent during the pandemic. next 10-Year US Treasury Yields Surge Past 5% Again, Dow Futures Crash 200 Points

4 months ago
S@
Sankalp @ Rising cap

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