Polymarket Traders Betting on Sam Altman's Fate Have Become Bipolar
24 hours ago, prediction markets were almost certain that Altman wouldn't be back as OpenAI's CEO. Now the market's answer to that question has changed twice....
- Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, reflects uncertainty about Sam Altman returning as OpenAI's CEO.
- Shares of the contract "Sam back as CEO of OpenAI" are trading at 55 cents, indicating a 55% chance of being correct.
- Altman was forced out of his role due to inconsistent communications with the board, leading to internal revolt and demands for the resignation of three directors.
- OpenAI is engaged in negotiations to resolve conflicts and reunite the team, with employee threats to quit and efforts by investors and Microsoft to reinstate Altman.
- The Yes side of the contract asking if Emmet Shear will be the CEO of OpenAI by week's end is trading at 68 cents.
- Anthropic's CEO rejected a merger offer from OpenAI's board, complicated by FTX's stake in Anthropic and legal issues.
The sentiment of the article is negative, highlighting the ongoing corporate drama, internal revolt, and uncertainty surrounding OpenAI's leadership.